Long-term trend probability signal
This signal is designed to show the long-term state of the market and provide clear thresholds for action.
It can be used independently for conservative positioning, or layered with Tactical DCA to increase capital efficiency.
Thresholds (bullish side)
- 0.0 = Neutral: hold and prepare to take action
- +0.2 = Entry level: bullish signal
- +0.5 = Stronger bullish confirmation level
- +1.0 = Full consensus between all data inputs. A +1 reading may reflect either bullish continuation or a transition toward mean-reverting conditions, depending on the broader market state.
Thresholds (bearish side)
- -0.2 = Bearish signal: preference is to cut all positions as this was the intended threshold for cutting. Holding past here may incur unnecessary risk.
- -0.5 = Stronger bearish confirmation level
- -1.0 = Full consensus between all data inputs. A -1 reading may reflect either bearish continuation or a transition toward mean-reverting conditions, depending on the broader market state.
How users apply the long-term trend probability indicator
Standalone use
Invest only when the signal turns bullish (from +0.2), and cut all positions when the signal turns bearish (−0.2).
Layered use
When layered with the DCA system, stop DCA when the signal turns bullish and deploy remaining capital according to your structure. Cut all positions when the signal turns bearish (−0.2).